The Multi-Party Era

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In the days following the 2024 General Election, it appeared voters may have set the country up for a sustained period of stable Government, with Labour holding one of largest majorities in 100 years. But beneath the surface, things were much more complicated. In fact, 2024 saw a shift towards multiparty politics as Labour won with a low vote share, along with a large rise in very marginal seats won on small majorities - nearly one in every five seats was won by a margin of 5% or less of total votes cast. Votes for other parties and independents surged - a mix of resurgent Liberal Democrats, Green Party, Independent, including pro-Gaza candidates and, of course, Reform UK.

Since that night in July, Labour has, so far, failed to deliver the decisive clean break from the years of ‘Tory chaos’ that they promised. Keir Starmer’s first year in Government has been a torrid one. Progress on key promises, like economic growth, has been difficult and the Government’s public approval rating has suffered as a result. And there have been troubles galore. Some, like US-led tariffs, beyond their control, others, such as the rebellion on welfare reforms, at least in part self-inflicted. A year in, Starmer finds himself in a position reminiscent to that of May, Johnson and Sunak: buffeted by outside pressures, with problems with his own MPs and struggling to set the domestic agenda in any meaningful way.

This is, at least partly, down to the surge of Reform UK and their leader Nigel Farage – now consistently leading the polls and often driving the domestic policy debate. On the ground, Reform UK grows its number of councillors week on week, as local by-elections are held each Thursday. Across the country, many Labour MPs believe Reform UK will be their principal opponent at the next election – and showing they have delivered for their constituents locally matters, even if it brings them into conflict with the national line.

 This is not the first time that the tectonic plates of Westminster have shifted. But the political change we are seeing in 2025 is different. Specifically:

1. Others are setting the agenda: While enjoying just four seats in Parliament, Reform UK has shown it can drive the national debate through the media and social media. It can shape opinion on policy issues without even being in Government. And a new Party led by Jeremy Corbyn, or a Green Party under a new leader, could destabilise things further. And these parties do not have well practiced policy-making machines – the announcements they make are currently most often developed by a small group of people leading these smaller parties based on what they believe voters want to hear. So understanding the underlying views of the voters they are appealing to should matter if you want to understand how your policy landscape might change through the course of this Parliament.

2. Growing unpredictability: Over the next four years there will be elections for every councillor, Mayor and national Government in the UK. A multi-party world makes many more of these contests unpredictable. But what is certain is that national businesses operating across the UK are likely to be left with a patchwork of local and regional decision-makers. And those companies dependent on local stakeholder decisions will need to work harder to understand how their stakeholders, and the issues that matter, will also change.

3. New, and more, relationships are required: It’s too early to say how the next General Election will play out. But the smart businesses are those who can see this multi-party world and are already working to build understanding and relationships across Parties. Beyond politics, they are also working to recognise how their colleagues, consumers and communities’ views may also be shifting in this landscape.

4. Business as a political battlefield: Voters are consumers and colleagues too. They make up the communities where businesses operate. In a world where news moves quickly and insurgent Parties are prepared to name businesses and brands to make political points and create headlines – companies must be mindful of public perceptions and thoughtful about how they would respond if dragged into political debates – both internally and externally.

The nature of the change we are navigating matters - to business as much as to Political Parties. Only through understanding can we adapt and thrive. The research contained in this report is a contribution to that process. It looks at how the public’s views are changing, how they are shaping a multi-party world, and where they matter to businesses.