Deal Or No Deal, Inside The Main Debate On The Right

This essay is part of our New Year's series on what to expect in 2026 and can be downloaded as one compiled PDF via the download form. Thank you!

By James Starkie, Partner at 5654 & Company

Newton’s third law of motion states that ‘for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction’. Now this 400-year-old law of physics may describe the relationship of force between two objects, but we will see a similar law of politics play out in the coming months and years, ahead of the next General Election. The primary force in this instance is that of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party and the object exerting the opposite reaction is, for now, Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party. We may observe here that these two forces aren’t currently equal, with Reform UK in the ascendancy, but it is nonetheless the case that, for now at least, they exist within each other’s orbit. That orbit is the right of British politics.

While 5654’s recent polling on multiparty politics showed that as much as one fifth of Reform UK’s vote is from Labour, that is equal to votes Reform UK are winning from an already diminished Conservative Party. This only adds to the Tory vote won by Reform UK at the last General Election. In short, the Conservatives cannot win an election with a strong Reform UK, but Labour almost certainly can.

As things stand however, Reform UK is struggling to consistently poll in the mid 30% and it would likely need to form a majority. However, if the Conservative’s can poll somewhere above 22% and Reform UK over 30% it is likely that they would together have enough MPs to form a government. I suspect we may not see this consistently but it will be close enough that we will have strong speculation that this outcome is a real possibility.

The early part of 2026 will likely lead to questions around Reform UK as they flatline at a low 30% in national polling but I suspect this will give way to panic as Farage’s Party do well across the UK in May’s local and devolved elections. Likely at the same time that Labour suffer disastrous results in Wales and the Tories near wipeout in both Wales and Scotland. These results will provide Farage with another boost and likely further defections, but potentially more from Labour as well as the Conservatives. Toward the end of 2026 though we will likely see the same flatlining in the polling below the magical 35% that Farage needs and that is when we are likely to see further talk of deals between Reform UK and the Conservatives.

There are unknowns at this point that can change the direction of any such discussions. First, the discussions will be away from the leaders so we will only know what is going on through leaks and second-hand gossip. Second, it’s very possible the Conservatives will have a new leader by this point. Can Kemi really survive such a mauling in May’s elections? It is certainly the case that she is safer than pre-conference, and some of the excitement around Jenrick has dissipated. Comeback kid James Cleverly may now have just as much chance as the born-again right-winger Jenrick.

Whoever is in charge of those talks - and whether anyone admits it or not there will be talks - unless either party looks very likely to achieve a clear majority, they will shape the narrative heading into the next election. This is why any move to ‘unite the right’ matters to business.

On the table in such discussions will be major policy areas. We know from the coalition era there are two key considerations around this. First, what is ruled in or out in any coalition agreement. Second, who is in charge of specific areas.

As a thought experiment, imagine the new Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero being either Tory or Reform UK. A Reform UK led department would be unquestionable in its bid to remove any mention of or move to net zero. A Conservative led one would, while drastically different from Miliband's leadership, have more internal pressure to pay some heed to net zero and prior agreed global targets. The policy consequences here would be felt across business.