What Happens if a Labour Leadership Contest Begins?
The National Executive Committee would meet to discuss and agree the process for the leadership election. Labour leadership elections are tightly rule-bound NEC processes.
Under the current rulebook, a vacancy produces a threshold-based shortlist of candidates. Candidates must first clear MP nominations and then secure CLP and/or affiliate (trades unions and other organisations formally linked to the Labour Party) backing before a preferential one-member-one-vote ballot of members and affiliated supporters.
A candidate must be a Labour MP and secure nominations from 20% of Labour MPs plus either 5% of CLPs or at least three affiliates representing 5% of affiliated membership.
Previous contests would suggest between 6 and 12 weeks for a full contest.
We expect the headline process to elect a new leader will include:
Parliamentary Labour Party nomination phase: each candidate must be nominated by at least 81 Labour MPs. If a contest is triggered by a successful challenge, rather than the Prime Minister resigning, the PM will automatically be a candidate unless he chooses not to compete.
Constituency Labour Party and affiliate nominations phase: each candidate must receive support from at least 33 constituency labour parties. The decision for each CLP nomination must be made at a meeting open to the full CLP membership.
Declaration of nominated candidates: A list of successfully nominated candidates will be published by Labour HQ, together with the names of the nominating organisations and Commons members of the PLP supporting the nominations.
Membership hustings and regional debates
Ballot issued: Postal ballots are issued by Labour HQ to the full membership.
Result announced
It is possible this may be a long contest, not least to give Andy Burnham time to return to Parliament as an MP and stand. However, depending on the number of candidates that put themselves forward for leadership, there may also be efforts to move more quickly and avoid a lengthy leadership election.
Who’s going to run?
As things stand, aside from wildcard candidates like Defence Minister Al Carns, the following MPs may attempt to run for Leader:
Wes Streeting: Streeting, the former Health Secretary, is seen as a front-rank candidate, viewed as a very capable communicator, often appearing on broadcast rounds on behalf of the Government. Streeting identifies as a ‘moderniser’ and is seen as on the right of the Party, but he has also been attempting to broaden outreach to the soft left and emphasise his pro-European credentials. He has close links to Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle, who is expected to play a central role in his campaign. Streeting’s links to Peter Mandelson will be used to attack him throughout the contest.
Andy Burnham: Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester, remains the bookies favourite and is seen as a leading soft-left candidate for Labour leader. He’s close to the Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, former Transport Secretary Louise Haigh, as well as leading members of the Labour left Clive Lewis and Alex Sobel. His pathway to Westminster has now become clearer following the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons, who has stepped down as MP for Makerfield to enable Burnham to contest the resulting by-election. Downing Street has since reportedly indicated it will not seek to block Burnham’s candidacy, while Labour NEC officers are expected to meet ahead of a full NEC meeting next week to discuss the process. While Burnham would still need formal NEC approval as Labour’s candidate and Labour would need to retain the seat, the key procedural barriers previously facing him have now largely fallen away. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has also indicated that his Party will "throw absolutely everything" at the by-election.
Yvette Cooper: A former leadership contender, Cooper also positions herself on the soft-left of the Labour Party. Quietly ambitious, she will play to her experience as Foreign Secretary in an uncertain and challenging geo-political context. Her pitch may be that her experience and measured approach leaves her best-placed to steady the ship following a bruising first two years of Labour in Government. She will also highlight the breadth of her experience in Government – most recently as Home Secretary and then Foreign Secretary, following time as Chief Secretary to the Treasury and Work and Pensions Secretary under Gordon Brown in the last Labour administration.
Ed Miliband: Miliband is also regularly cited as a potential contender from the soft left of the Party. Miliband resigned as Labour Leader following defeat in the 2015 General Election. He has close links with Labour Deputy Leader Lucy Powell and Louise Haigh, as well as maintaining links with his former advisers Lord Livermore and Torsten Bell in the Treasury, and the wider membership of the Tribune Group of Labour MPs. In recent days his team have been clear he already has the MP backing to stand.
Angela Rayner: Rayner is widely viewed as a leading contender from the Party’s left. She would likely receive backing from some of the larger, and more vocal Labour affiliated trade unions such as Unite and Unison, as well as the Socialist Campaign Group of Labour MPs. As a former Housing Secretary and Deputy Prime Minister, she has substantial support within the Labour Party and has positioned herself at arm’s length from the Government since leaving due to an unpaid tax scandal. As of this morning, Rayner has been cleared by HMRC over her tax affairs, removing what has been seen as the main barrier to Rayner running for Leader.
What will happen inside Government during the contest?
In Departments, the civil service will now start to hold decisions on novel and contentious issues until the conclusion of the leadership election and Ministers are appointed. In the Cabinet Office, strict guidelines on civil service conduct during the contest will be updated and circulated with a particular focus on communications, events and visits to avoid the perception of bias from civil servants. Ministers, Special Advisers and backbenchers will go to work on leadership campaigns, preparing for the hustings, pursuing trade union endorsements and campaigning for membership endorsements.
What should I be thinking about?
Is this an opportunity to press my agenda? This leadership contest will include debating policy ideas Labour should be pursuing in Government. Candidates will set out their policy proposals throughout the contest, and some will publish their own manifestos. This can be an opportunity to press your agenda and contribute new ideas to the policy conversation. But be warned that leadership campaign teams will be small and running at pace, their ability to engage will be extremely limited.
What policy ideas could harm my licence to operate? Equally, policy proposals will be made which could be damaging to businesses licence to operate and grow. It will be important to monitor the contest, understand which ideas are gaining traction, and develop plans to engage with the Government following the contest to challenge or shape how they are pursued.
Does my company risk being pulled into the debate? There is no doubt some companies and sectors will be discussed during the contest. This can trigger increased media and public interest. Scenario planning is important to ensure you know ahead of time how you would respond, and which supporters you can call on to help.
Am I ready to engage, whoever wins? For all businesses, the focus should be on using the leadership contest to prepare for what comes next. Scenario planning for how each candidate would operate as Prime Minister, what their priorities would be, and where there will be opportunities to help shape their agenda. At the same time, continuing to work to build the support you need to engage effectively.
Will there be an early election? Unlikely, but as soon as this contest concludes, pressure from Opposition Parties will grow for an early election. And a very brave new Prime Minister may choose to deliver some big ‘wins’ early, test voter opinion and then call an early election. This scenario is unlikely; any winner will know an early election will almost certainly lead to significant Labour losses. But in the current multi-party context, considering what an early election would mean for your business and how you would respond is not wasted time.